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Case AR-2026-016

Verdict: Unsupported

Are Ethiopian and Eritrean forces fighting with heavy weapons and aircraft in Afar, as an EEPA report says?

By Editorial Desk — Published

The claim

Claim · Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA)2026-10-12Archived ✓

The Bure, Denakil, Garbo and Awala areas in the Afar region are now considered active combat zones between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. These clashes involve infantry, heavy weapons and aircrafts.

Our finding

Case AR-2026-016

Verdict

Unsupported

EEPA's situation report of 12 October states that four areas of Ethiopia's Afar region are “active combat zones” between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, with infantry, heavy weapons and aircraft. It gives no source, though the items around it are attributed. We found no news agency or conflict monitor reporting such fighting. The conflict monitor ACLED, the most-cited source on Eritrean troop movements, records none in Afar.

Unsupported: The claim was presented as established fact, but neither the outlet nor its cited sources provide evidence that can be independently verified, and we found none. This is not a finding that the claim is false. How we decide

What was claimed

EEPA’s situation report of 12 October, the same report whose claims about prisoners and armed civil servants we reviewed earlier, also says this about Ethiopia’s Afar region :

The Bure, Denakil, Garbo and Awala areas in the Afar region are now considered active combat zones between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. These clashes involve infantry, heavy weapons and aircrafts.

IDN-InDepthNews republished it the same day .

If true, this would mean the two countries’ armies are already fighting a conventional war on a second front, on the road to the Eritrean port of Assab, with aircraft involved. That is a different conflict from the one the news agencies have described, in which the reported Eritrean presence was in Tigray and Eritrea denies it.

Who says so

The report does not say. “Are now considered” does not say considered by whom. Elsewhere in the same section, EEPA attributes its items: “according to a source in Mekelle”, “according to a resident”, “allegedly” . In the next section, the claim that Ethiopian troops crossed into Eritrea and took Daba Sima is labelled “according to unverified reports” . We found that claim to be false. The Afar claim, the largest in the report, carries no attribution at all.

What we checked

We found no news agency report of fighting between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces in Afar in October.

The conflict monitor ACLED is the source most outlets have cited for Eritrean troop movements this month. Its Ethiopia page, updated on 13 October, records Eritrean forces in Tigray on 7, 10 and 12 October. It records none in Afar, and does not mention Bure, Denakil or Garbo . The only “Awala” it lists is Adi Awala, on the road from Shire to Sheraro in north-western Tigray, at the opposite end of the country’s northern border from Bure.

An earlier version of the claim exists. In the week before 7 October, Afar’s chief administrator said Eritrean troops were fighting in the region. Reuters reported it and said: “Reuters could not confirm that” . The analysis service RANE has since referred to “reports” of clashes around Bure, without saying whose .

We found no images, footage, casualty reports or humanitarian agency statements describing a battle involving aircraft and heavy weapons in any of the four areas named.

Our verdict

Unsupported. EEPA states that four areas of Afar are active combat zones between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces, with infantry, heavy weapons and aircraft, without naming any source, while attributing the smaller items around it. The only earlier claim of Eritrean forces fighting in Afar came from a regional official and could not be confirmed by Reuters. ACLED records no such fighting. If evidence emerges, we will review this fact check.

Exhibits

5 items
  1. A

    Report

    EEPA Situation Report, 12 October 2026, section “Situation in Ethiopia (per 12 October)”: the Afar claim, with no source. Bullets in the same section are attributed “according to a source in Mekelle”, “according to a resident” or “allegedly”. In the next section, the claim that Ethiopian troops crossed into Eritrea is labelled “according to unverified reports”. The footer says “all information reported originates from third parties”.

    eepa.be ↗
  2. B

    Report

    IDN-InDepthNews, 12 October 2026: republishes the EEPA situation report, including the Afar claim.

    indepthnews.net ↗
  3. C

    Report

    ACLED, “Conflict in Ethiopia”, updated 13 October 2026: records Eritrean forces in Tigray on 7, 10 and 12 October. It records no Eritrean forces in Afar and does not mention Bure, Denakil or Garbo. Its only “Awala” is Adi Awala, on the route from Shire to Sheraro in Tigray.

    acleddata.com ↗
  4. D

    Report

    Reuters, 7 October 2026, published by Arab News: the chief administrator of Afar said the previous week that Eritrean troops were fighting in the region. “Reuters could not confirm that.”

    arabnews.com ↗
  5. E

    Report

    RANE Worldview, situation report on Eritrea's appeal to the UN: refers to “reports” of clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces around Bure, without naming them.

    worldview.ranenetwork.com ↗
Exhibit A · Report

EEPA Situation Report, 12 October 2026, section “Situation in Ethiopia (per 12 October)”: the Afar claim, with no source. Bullets in the same section are attributed “according to a source in Mekelle”, “according to a resident” or “allegedly”. In the next section, the claim that Ethiopian troops crossed into Eritrea is labelled “according to unverified reports”. The footer says “all information reported originates from third parties”.

eepa.be ↗In the exhibits ↓

Exhibit B · Report

IDN-InDepthNews, 12 October 2026: republishes the EEPA situation report, including the Afar claim.

indepthnews.net ↗In the exhibits ↓

Exhibit C · Report

ACLED, “Conflict in Ethiopia”, updated 13 October 2026: records Eritrean forces in Tigray on 7, 10 and 12 October. It records no Eritrean forces in Afar and does not mention Bure, Denakil or Garbo. Its only “Awala” is Adi Awala, on the route from Shire to Sheraro in Tigray.

acleddata.com ↗In the exhibits ↓

Exhibit D · Report

Reuters, 7 October 2026, published by Arab News: the chief administrator of Afar said the previous week that Eritrean troops were fighting in the region. “Reuters could not confirm that.”

arabnews.com ↗In the exhibits ↓

Exhibit E · Report

RANE Worldview, situation report on Eritrea's appeal to the UN: refers to “reports” of clashes between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces around Bure, without naming them.

worldview.ranenetwork.com ↗In the exhibits ↓

Record of events

2026-10-07Reuters reports that it could not confirm the Afar administrator's claim that Eritrean troops were fighting in the region.
2026-10-12Claim published by Europe External Programme with Africa (EEPA).
2026-10-12EEPA's situation report states that four areas of Afar are active combat zones between Ethiopian and Eritrean forces. IDN-InDepthNews republishes it.
2026-10-14This review published.

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